Who Does China Prefer?

Dui Hua Executive Director speaking at the University Club of San Francisco, October 17, 2024. Image Credit: Dui Hua

John Kamm discussed the 2024 US presidential candidates and their approach to China in a recent talk at the University Club of San Francisco.  

At a recent talk at the University Club of San Francisco, held on October 17, 2024, Dui Hua Executive Director John Kamm explored Beijing’s possible preferences in the upcoming US presidential election, offering perspectives into the dynamics shaping US-China ties.

Kamm remarked that relations between the two sides had deteriorated to their lowest point in decades. He analyzed China’s evolving strategic alignments, pointing out that Beijing’s tacit support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict, as well as its backing of Gaza and Iran in the Middle East, are sources of current tensions between the West and China. Kamm examined US perceptions of China, particularly in the media and in Congress, and the view that China is an enemy and a “pacing challenge” for the US.

Kamm then discussed Vice President Kamala Harris’s nuanced stance on China, saying that it represented a shift from more hawkish positions within Washington. Kamm suggested it was unlikely that a Harris administration would sign any of the 25 bills – including the Hong Kong and Trade Office (HKETO) Certification Act – passed by Congress during China Week in August. “The HKETO bill is unconstitutional on its face. It intervenes with the president’s right to conduct foreign policy.”

“The HKETO bill is unconstitutional on its face. It intervenes with the president’s right to conduct foreign policy.”

Former President Trump, on the other hand, presented a starker choice for Beijing. Kamm said that Trump was “committed to revoking China’s most favored nation. If that happens, yes the US will suffer as well, but nothing compared to how much China will suffer.” But “Xi Jinping knows him well,” Kamm continued. Xi had “a history of dealing with folks like Donald Trump. On the other hand, he’s only met with Kamala Harris for 45 minutes on one occasion.”

Kamm ended the talk with a question for his audience to consider: “Who do you think Xi Jinping prefers?” Of the audience who responded, a little over half thought that Xi Jinping would prefer a Trump presidency.